domenica 23 febbraio 2014

Usa vs Germany: Data-gate or economic-gate?

di Andrea Fasolini 

The last five years will be remembered as the coldest in the United States - Europe relations history. 
After a decade characterized by the growth of deep rifts between the two allies , now everything seems set to get even worse: upon the Data-gate scandal exploded, Angela Merkel has announced a strong reaction of the entire Union, as a result of the arrogance of the Americans.
Germany is asking powerfully for a coordinated and widespread control system against the foreign intrusiveness.
Although nobody in Europe is underestimating the gravity of this scandal, Germany seems to be the most offended. 
  Is it only about the Data-gate scandal? It would be hardly believable.
 Spying is one of the most common activities in the modern world, even between allies. Plus, it is unlikely that German intelligence was not at all aware of what was going on. 
There must be something more. To understand it, we have to understand a little more about the current global economic and political situation.
After the 2008-2009 economic crisis, the world has changed: it became clear that the huge imbalances that had characterized the international economy the previous years were becoming unsustainable. It was also clear, that an international cooperation was necessary to solve the dramatic economic situation. Everybody opted for an accommodative monetary policy, along with an increase of Public Expenditure. 
The only country who publicly refused this kind of solution was Germany: Europe started a strict and aggressive austerity policy, in order to rebalance the great economic differences between the European countries.
Needless to say, this strategy is now failing. In spite of the dramatic economic situation, Germany is keep supporting this kind of economic policy, while the United States are asking for a more cooperative approach: European austerity policy is prolonging the international depression, with dangerous implications for the international economy.
Why is Germany daring the most powerful country in the world refusing to change the disastrous European economic policy?
I would like you to take a look at this graph.
The current account balance indicates net revenue on exports minus payments for imports. As you can see, during the last ten years Germany has amassed a huge amount of credits, while the United States has amassed debts.

In this phase, to keep the global economy going, a little inflation is necessary: the huge amount of debts that country as the United States and the south of Europe have amassed in the last decades is turning unsustainable.
Germany is trying to defend its strategy, because with a mild inflation a part of its credits would depreciate.This is the real battlefield: for the first time in years, the United States interests are completely different from the German ones. The two countries are facing each other, and Germany does not seem disposed to give up under international pressures. Does anybody remember what happened the last time Germany refused to give up its plans? I do.

Nessun commento: